PRIVATE · INTERNAL — branch competition scoreboard. Do NOT publish. Feeds the Nov 2026 arbiter decision.
4-Branch Scoreboard
Generated 2026-06-15 19:52 · returns computed 2026-06-15T19:52:30
① Managed performance — paper book + exit-replay (arbiter-grade)
Pattern (live) = real R-multiples from the live paper book — the gold standard. oneil / ibd_sim / current = a synthetic exit-replay of their signal log through each branch's OWN sell rules (oneil/ibd_sim → O'Neil's 8 rules, 8% stop; current → 7% stop + 21-EMA trail). Those branches log signals but no live stop, so their stop is INFERRED from method, and they enter at the signal-day close rather than a structural pivot — so they are NOT perfectly comparable to pattern's pivot-tight entries. Read them as "what a generic stop would have done to these signals." Replayed rows are marked replay. This section — not the signal returns below — should decide Nov 2026.
Replay computed 2026-06-15 19:52 · market/earnings/RS-line overlays excluded (no historical per-bar data)
| Branch | Closed | Win% | Avg R | Total R | Open |
|---|
| Pattern (live) | 5 | 40.0% | +0.2R | +1R | 6 |
| O'Neil replay | 6 | 33.3% | -0.52R | -3.14R | 20 |
| IBD Simulator replay | 30 | 13.3% | -0.98R | -29.29R | 12 |
| Current replay | 10 | 0.0% | -1.18R | -11.78R | 5 |
② Trade journal — entry / stop / take-profit / exit per position
Levels are the live managed rules: SL = structural stop (original, recovered via stop_pct even after trailing); 2R TP = entry + 2×risk (½ = partial-50% then trail for partial_2r_ma21); Trail = MA21 / EMA21 per system. Portfolio kill-switch (drawdown): WARN 5% · HALT 8% · HARD 12%.
Open
| Sym | Mkt | System | Entry | Entry px | Shares | 1R risk | Stop (SL) | 2R TP | Trail | Last | Unreal R | MFE/MAE |
|---|
| AMATA | TH | failed_reentry | 2026-05-08 | 20.8 | 454 | 1.1 /5.29% | 19.7 | 23 ½ | MA21 trail (remainder after 2R partial) | 26.75 | +5.41R | ·/· |
| ↳ Real Estate · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: failed_reentry · RS 81 (leading) · top-50 · sys_a,rs_leading,rs_81,top50 |
| AMATA | TH | first_pullback | 2026-05-08 | 20.8 | 908 | 1.1 /5.29% | 19.7 | 23 | EMA21 trail (Webster, let winner run) | 26.75 | +5.41R | ·/· |
| ↳ Real Estate · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: first_pullback · RS 81 (leading) · top-50 · sys_b,rs_leading,rs_81,top50 |
| PFG | US | first_pullback | 2026-05-01 | 101.09 | 372 | 2.68 /2.65% | 98.41 | 106.45 | EMA21 trail (Webster, let winner run) | 111.115 | +3.74R | ·/· |
| ↳ Financial Services · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: first_pullback · RS 91 (elite) · rank-61 · sys_b,rs_elite,rs_91 |
| SAH | US | failed_reentry | 2026-06-12 | 84.61 | 114 | 4.349 /5.14% | 80.261 | 93.308 ½ | MA21 trail (remainder after 2R partial) | 84.61 | +0R | ·/· |
| ↳ auto:failed_reentry score=81 rs=98 stop=5.1% · auto_swing_v1 |
| SAH | US | first_pullback | 2026-06-12 | 84.61 | 114 | 4.349 /5.14% | 80.261 | 93.308 | EMA21 trail (Webster, let winner run) | 84.61 | +0R | ·/· |
| ↳ auto:first_pullback score=72 rs=98 stop=5.1% · auto_swing_v1 |
| WTFC | US | first_pullback | 2026-06-12 | 159.26 | 73 | 6.8323 /4.29% | 152.4277 | 172.925 | EMA21 trail (Webster, let winner run) | 159.26 | +0R | ·/· |
| ↳ auto:first_pullback score=64 rs=96 stop=4.3% · auto_swing_v1 |
Closed
| Sym | Mkt | System | Entry | Entry px | Shares | 1R risk | Stop (SL) | 2R TP | Trail | Exit | Exit px | Reason | R | MFE/MAE |
|---|
| FDX | US | failed_reentry | 2026-05-01 | 393.67 | 86 | 11.4 /2.9% | 382.27 | 416.47 ½ | MA21 trail (remainder after 2R partial) | 2026-05-04 | 382.27 | stop_hit_gap | -1R | ·/· |
| ↳ Industrials · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: failed_reentry · RS 83 (leading) · rank-123 · sys_a,rs_leading,rs_83 |
| SAIA | US | first_pullback | 2026-05-01 | 441.26 | 40 | 24.25 /5.5% | 417.01 | 489.76 | EMA21 trail (Webster, let winner run) | 2026-05-04 | 417.01 | stop_hit (stop=417.01) | -1R | ·/· |
| ↳ Industrials · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: first_pullback · RS 81 (leading) · rank-134 · sys_b,rs_leading,rs_81 |
| JBHT | US | first_pullback | 2026-05-01 | 248.73 | 58 | 16.73 /6.73% | 232.0 | 282.19 | EMA21 trail (Webster, let winner run) | 2026-05-12 | 232.0 | stop_hit (stop=232.00) | -1R | ·/· |
| ↳ Industrials · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: first_pullback · RS 82 (leading) · rank-128 · sys_b,rs_leading,rs_82 |
| JBHT | US | failed_reentry | 2026-05-01 | 248.73 | 144 | 6.9 /2.77% | 241.83 | 262.53 ½ | MA21 trail (remainder after 2R partial) | 2026-05-15 | 262.53 | 2r_target | +2R | ·/· |
| ↳ Industrials · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: failed_reentry · RS 82 (leading) · rank-128 · sys_a,rs_leading,rs_82 |
| AMATA | TH | failed_reentry | 2026-05-08 | 20.8 | 454 | 1.1 /5.29% | 19.7 | 23 | — | 2026-05-19 | 23.0 | partial_2r (2R=23.00) | +2R | ·/· |
| ↳ Real Estate · Confirmed Uptrend (derived) · System: failed_reentry · RS 81 (leading) · top-50 · sys_a,rs_leading,rs_81,top50 |
③ Signal returns — raw buy & hold, NO exits (sniff test only)
⚠ These are naked forward returns of every raw signal, with no partial-TP, stop, or sizing. They understate systems that rely on exits — e.g. pattern's 20yr walk-forward is +96–185% per-trade R with exits, yet shows negative here. Use only to compare directional hit-rate, never as performance.
| Branch | N picks | 5d mean | 5d neg% | 20d mean | 60d mean |
|---|
| Pattern | 3085 | +0.25% | 51.8% | +0.90% | — |
| O'Neil | 76 | +2.36% | 40.0% | +3.58% | — |
| IBD Simulator | 54 | -0.20% | 41.9% | -0.43% | — |
| Current | 27 | -0.95% | 50.0% | +2.46% | — |
④ Latest picks per branch
Pattern (first_pullback + failed_reentry)
latest: 2026-06-15 · 15 pick(s)
SMT · RS98 · failed_reentry
GUNKUL · RS97 · failed_reentry
STECON · RS97 · failed_reentry
EASTW · RS96 · failed_reentry
DELTA · RS95 · failed_reentry
HANA · RS94 · failed_reentry
FORTH · RS94 · failed_reentry
KCE · RS92 · failed_reentry
SRICHA · RS91 · failed_reentry
TC · RS90 · first_pullback
INSET · RS90 · failed_reentry
BAY · RS86 · failed_reentry
UKEM · RS86 · failed_reentry
AMATA · RS84 · failed_reentry
STA · RS80 · first_pullback
O'Neil (CANSLIM scan_oneil_live)
latest: 2026-06-12 · 14 pick(s)
WFRD · us
PLTR · us
PAAS · us
NBIX · us
CNX · us
TEVA · us
EME · us
NESR · us
VAL · us
REX · us
AMZN · us
ORN · us
YOU · us
NAT · us
IBD Simulator
latest: 2026-06-15 · 1 pick(s)
APGE · RS83 · us
Current (RS / DI — frozen)
latest: 2026-06-12 · 2 pick(s)
TRT · th
SMT · th
⑤ VCP / base-breakout watchlist — RS≥80 leaders
Independent watchlist (NOT the locked systems): RS-leader stocks breaking out of, or tightening inside, a base. 🚀 breakout = closing at a new 52wk high today · 📐 vcp_base = clean tightening contractions (each pullback smaller) near the highs · near = close to highs, base not yet clean. Contractions read peak→trough %, deep→tight. Mechanical — chart-check before acting. Refreshed 2026-06-15T19:52:30.
🇹🇭 Thai — 10 candidates (RS 2026-06-12)
Market: 🟢 Confirmed Uptrend (as of 2026-06-15) — backtest: act on breakouts only in a Confirmed Uptrend
| Sym | RS | %52h | Signal | Trend | Contractions (deep→tight) |
|---|
| TVO | 81 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| TRT | 99 | 98.3% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| STECON | 97 | 97.7% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| DELTA | 95 | 97.0% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| INSET | 90 | 98.4% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| TC | 90 | 96.6% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| BAY | 86 | 96.2% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| SINGER | 85 | 97.4% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| AMATA | 84 | 95.5% | near | 📈 cont | — |
| AOT | 80 | 98.3% | near | 📈 cont | — |
🇺🇸 US — 527 candidates (RS 2026-06-12)
Market: 🟢 Confirmed Uptrend (as of 2026-06-12) — backtest: act on breakouts only in a Confirmed Uptrend
| Sym | RS | %52h | Signal | Trend | Contractions (deep→tight) |
|---|
| ATROB | 99 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| RNDOF | 99 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| UBS | 98 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| EACO | 98 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| TWMIF | 98 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| SEPLF | 97 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| TOELF | 96 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| ICHGF | 96 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| WTFC | 96 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| SKBNF | 94 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| KLRGF | 94 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| FXRVF | 94 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| NGKIF | 93 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| EIFZF | 93 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| SMUPF | 93 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| IPGDF | 92 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| AZLCZ | 92 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| LNTH | 91 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| CMAUF | 91 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| ARRKF | 90 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| ASRT | 90 | 99.9% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| TOTDF | 89 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| ANIOY | 89 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| CTOS | 89 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| CBLNY | 89 | 100.0% | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | — |
| … +502 more in vcp_leaders.json |
⑥ IBD flat base & double bottom — RS≥80 leaders
IBD/O'Neil bases. 📏 Flat base = tight sideways range ≤15% deep, ≥5 weeks, after a prior advance; pivot = base high. W double bottom = two lows where the 2nd undercuts the 1st (shakeout); pivot = the middle peak. 🚀 breakout = back above pivot · near = below pivot by to-pivot%. Mechanical — chart-check before acting. Refreshed 2026-06-15T19:52:34.
🇹🇭 Thai · 📏 Flat base — 3
Market: 🟢 Confirmed Uptrend (as of 2026-06-15) — backtest: act on breakouts only in a Confirmed Uptrend
| Sym | RS | Signal | Trend | to-pivot | Pivot | Depth | Wk |
|---|
| TVO | 81 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 26.5 | 9.8% | 5.0 |
| TC | 90 | near | 📈 cont | -3.4% | 5.9 | 8.5% | 5.0 |
| STA | 80 | near | 📈 cont | -9.3% | 20.5 | 14.1% | 5.0 |
🇹🇭 Thai · W double bottom — 1
| Sym | RS | Signal | Trend | to-pivot | Pivot | Lows (1→2) | Depth |
|---|
| STA | 80 | near | 📈 cont | -7.0% | 20.0 | 18.6→18.7 | 7.0% |
🇺🇸 US · 📏 Flat base — 238
Market: 🟢 Confirmed Uptrend (as of 2026-06-12) — backtest: act on breakouts only in a Confirmed Uptrend
| Sym | RS | Signal | Trend | to-pivot | Pivot | Depth | Wk |
|---|
| RNDOF | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 6.2 | 11.2% | 5.0 |
| UBS | 98 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | -0.0% | 48.98 | 10.0% | 5.0 |
| BNCDY | 97 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 48.84 | 13.8% | 5.0 |
| HRBR | 97 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 1.74 | 10.9% | 5.0 |
| WTFC | 96 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | -0.0% | 159.31 | 10.1% | 5.0 |
| SKBNF | 94 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 7.88 | 9.1% | 5.0 |
| FXRVF | 94 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 0.79 | 1.4% | 5.0 |
| NGKIF | 93 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 39.71 | 14.4% | 5.0 |
| LNTH | 91 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | -0.0% | 104.57 | 12.4% | 5.0 |
| ASRT | 90 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | -0.1% | 23.5 | 6.0% | 5.0 |
| RAIFF | 88 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 55.75 | 5.8% | 5.0 |
| MTNOY | 88 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | -0.1% | 14.03 | 11.6% | 5.0 |
| WNGRF | 87 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | -0.0% | 75.33 | 8.7% | 5.0 |
| KISB | 87 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 63.0 | 3.2% | 5.0 |
| CNBW | 87 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 95.0 | 10.5% | 7.0 |
| PPBN | 87 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 54.0 | 10.8% | 5.0 |
| BIOVF | 85 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 48.0 | 1.1% | 5.0 |
| PFLC | 85 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 17.35 | 6.6% | 5.0 |
| ENBP | 85 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 27.25 | 11.2% | 8.0 |
| COGZF | 84 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 1.89 | 10.6% | 5.0 |
🇺🇸 US · W double bottom — 388
| Sym | RS | Signal | Trend | to-pivot | Pivot | Lows (1→2) | Depth |
|---|
| BGUUF | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 0.1 | 0.09→0.08 ⤓UC | 27.3% |
| NATH | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.2% | 101.74 | 99.77→100.75 | 2.0% |
| WWD | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.3% | 387.19 | 347.07→344.17 ⤓UC | 14.7% |
| UFPT | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.5% | 233.82 | 210.04→210.44 | 8.9% |
| ESE | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +1.3% | 309.57 | 284.42→282.98 ⤓UC | 16.6% |
| JBSS | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +2.3% | 77.66 | 73.9→73.12 ⤓UC | 12.8% |
| ACMIF | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +2.8% | 1.51 | 1.4→1.26 ⤓UC | 30.7% |
| MMSI | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +2.9% | 64.66 | 59.74→60.02 | 21.6% |
| JBL | 99 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +3.3% | 372.37 | 325.41→321.92 ⤓UC | 5.8% |
| KORE | 98 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.0% | 9.2 | 9.15→9.17 | 0.2% |
| DRI | 98 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.5% | 210.43 | 189.97→191.72 | 9.9% |
| UBS | 98 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +1.1% | 48.45 | 46.42→46.76 | 2.8% |
| BNCDY | 97 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +2.1% | 47.85 | 42.11→42.91 | 9.7% |
| HRBR | 97 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +2.4% | 1.7 | 1.55→1.55 | 3.1% |
| IBOC | 97 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +3.8% | 73.72 | 70.28→70.5 | 4.1% |
| SYBT | 97 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +3.8% | 72.79 | 68.79→69.27 | 5.9% |
| OSBC | 97 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +4.1% | 21.61 | 20.33→20.68 | 7.3% |
| OSIS | 96 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.3% | 224.82 | 203.45→197.27 ⤓UC | 36.3% |
| WTFC | 96 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +4.5% | 152.41 | 143.22→145.56 | 6.6% |
| LH | 95 | 🚀 breakout | 📈 cont | +0.6% | 264.66 | 250.0→253.06 | 12.5% |
ibd_sim is stale if the IBD simulator cron is not running. current = di_scanner_output. · file:///Volumes/WD Blue 1 TB/branch_scoreboard.html