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Methodology · 2026-06-13 · 5 min read

The Anchor Run + Zigzag: A TypeB Breakout Study

Track. Study. Wait. Strike.
English อ่านภาษาไทย (Thai)

For an overview of all three breakout patterns (TypeA, TypeB, TypeC), see [Three Ways a Stock Contracts Before It Breaks Out](/articles/three-ways-stock-contracts-before-breakout.html). This article goes deeper on TypeB specifically: structure, data, quality checklist, and exit logic.


What Makes TypeB Different

TypeA contracts in space — the range narrows, highs walk down, lows walk up.

TypeB contracts in swing amplitude after a proven first leg. The stock has already shown institutional demand (a ≥22% anchor run). What follows is a visible zigzag where each cycle is smaller than the last — not tighter in price space, but shrinking in the size of each swing.

The structure:

1. Anchor run — ≥22% gain from a base low (proves institutional interest) 2. Swing 1: first pullback from the anchor peak → first bounce (amplitude A1) 3. Swing 2: second pullback → second bounce (amplitude A2, where A2 < A1) 4. Pivot = the last recovery high (below the anchor peak) 5. Stop = the last swing low (higher than the prior swing low) 6. Breakout = close above pivot on expanding volume

The key signal: each zigzag cycle is measurably smaller than the last. A1 → A2 contracting by at least 30–40% is the threshold. Supply is being absorbed; energy is coiling for continuation.


COM7 — The Teaching Example (Jan–May 2026)

COM7 (Commerce7 Group, SET) is the cleanest TypeB I tracked in 2026.

DateEventPrice
Jan 14Base low (above 200-MA)฿18.2
Feb 19Anchor peak (+42.9% from low)฿26.0
Mar 4SL1 — first pullback฿20.6 low
Mar 16SH1 — first bounce high฿24.3 high
Mar 23SL2 — second pullback฿21.3 low
Apr 1Pivot (recovery high)฿22.7
Apr 7Final test, holds above SL2฿21.2 low
Apr 22Breakout (3.4× normal volume)฿22.8
Jun 2026Current price~฿27

Swing amplitude: A1 = 18% (฿20.6 → ฿24.3). A2 = 6.6% (฿21.3 → ฿22.7). Contraction: 3× smaller. This is the signal — not just that swings exist, but that each one is visibly, measurably tighter.

Why the stop works: SL2 (฿21.3) is the last significant floor before the pivot. A close below it means sellers retook control of the coil. Stop at or below SL2; risk from the breakout = ~6%.

What invalidates it: - Second low breaks below first low (floor is falling, not rising) - Second recovery exceeds the anchor peak (compression is gone) - Swing amplitudes aren't shrinking (just two random swings, not a coil)


Backtest Results (Thai Market, RS≥80 + Confirmed Uptrend, 2005–2026)

MetricTypeA (Coil)TypeB (Zigzag)
n2,910602
Median R at 30d+0.11+0.06
Hit ≥2R at 30d18.1%24.8%
Stop rate31.6%44.8%
% Positive52.3%48.2%

TypeB has more stops (44.8% vs 31.6%). The anchor run selects for momentum stocks, but the zigzag structure also appears in declining stocks with bounces — quality filtering (RS≥80 + confirmed uptrend) is not optional.

TypeB has a higher ≥2R hit rate (24.8% vs 18.1%). When a genuine anchor-run + zigzag breaks out, it tends to run further. The proven demand from the first leg creates fuel for the continuation.

Expected value: roughly equal across both types (~+0.05R per trade simplified EV). TypeB is higher-variance — more stops, but bigger winners when it works. This is the fat right-tail signature: accepting more frequent losses in exchange for the chance at a larger multiple.


The Right Exit for TypeB

TypeB's data profile has a direct exit implication: the ≥2R hit rate is its strongest metric. Hold through the first stop attempt. Bank partial profit at 2R (where TypeB outperforms TypeA). Trail the rest.

What not to do: hold waiting for a 3R or 4R move. The anchor run was already the first big move — the breakout is continuation, not a fresh launch. TypeB does not produce TypeC-style grinding advances; it produces faster, higher-amplitude moves that often retrace. Partial exit at 2R captures the distributional advantage; holding past it does not.

A stop triggered on a TypeB that later resumes is not a mistake. TypeB's stop rate is genuinely high — it is a feature of the setup, not a signal of poor execution.


5-Point Quality Checklist Before Trading a TypeB Signal

Not every anchor run + zigzag is worth taking. The scanner detects the shape mechanically; the chart confirms the quality.

1. Was the anchor run on institutional volume? 2–3× average volume during the run, not a random spike or pump-driven move. Look for multiple consecutive accumulation days. 2. Is the RS line rising throughout the base? Relative strength should hold or improve during the zigzag. A declining RS line during the base means the stock is losing ground vs the market — disqualifying. 3. Is the zigzag visibly tightening? You should be able to draw converging trendlines. A1 contracting to A2 by at least 30% is the quantitative threshold. 4. Is risk ≤7% to the last swing low? If the stop is more than 7% away, the base is too wide. The coil hasn't formed properly; the risk/reward on the trade deteriorates. 5. Is the market in confirmed uptrend? TypeB fails reliably in corrections. The stop IS the plan — but without a regime gate, you're trading a high-stop-rate setup in a headwind. Both conditions must be true.

COM7 passed all five: clean institutional anchor run, RS top decile throughout, A2 = one-third of A1, 6% stop distance, SET in Confirmed Uptrend.


For the Scanner

TypeB signals appear with a ⟳ Zigzag label in the live scanner output, displaying: - Anchor gain (the first leg %) - Swing amplitudes (A1% → A2% → contraction ratio) - Distance from current price to pivot - Risk from pivot to stop (SL2)

The scanner is generous — it finds candidates based on shape. The 5-point checklist above is the human filter applied on top of it.


Backtest source: backtest_zigzag_v2.py --rs-min 80 --regime, Thai universe 882 symbols 2005–2026. See also: [Three Ways a Stock Contracts Before It Breaks Out](/articles/three-ways-stock-contracts-before-breakout.html) · [The Darvas Box on Thai Data](/articles/darvas-box-thai-data-3289-setups.html)

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